How is Russia faring overall, how resilient is the Russian state, and more specifically, what is the state of its economy? In the report Russia’s Economy: Wartime Economy, Stagnation, but No Collapse, author Anders Åslund analyzes the current state of Russia’s economy based on a range of economic factors. Åslund observes that the sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, have had a significant adverse impact on the country’s economy. Alongside the war, Russia has experienced substantial capital flight and currency crises, and its economy has now shifted towards a wartime economy, with a negative growth outlook. Taken together, these factors have contributed to an increasingly uncertain future for the country’s economy.
Despite these setbacks, Åslund argues that there are areas where the West could do more to weaken Russia’s economy and, consequently, its war capabilities. Åslund for example recommends that the West substantially raises import tariffs on all Russian goods; confiscates the frozen reserves of Russia’s central bank held in Europe; prohibits Western banks from operating in Russia; re-establishes the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls to regulate and prevent export of high-technology goods to Russia; to a larger extent imposes fines on Western companies that continue to pay taxes in Russia; and implements secondary sanctions against sanctions violators in third countries.
Do note that this report is in Swedish.