In the report Skuggberedning 2026 (Shadow Defence Commission 2026), Patrik Oksanen and Karl Agell present the results of a survey of ten experts and defence commentators in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Estonia. The report is part of Frivärld’s project “Skuggberedningen” (The Shadow Defence Commission), which tracks the work of the Defence Commission ahead of its final report in November 2026. Among the main points:
- Pace is the critical shortfall: The Defence Commission’s previous level of 2.6 percent of GDP appears deeply insufficient. Several experts see 3.5 percent as a floor rather than an end goal, and warn that the current system is unable to convert funding into real defence capability quickly enough.
- Sweden must fully think like a NATO member: The defence of Sweden is no longer just about Swedish territory, but about strengthening deterrence across the entire Nordic-Baltic region. The American security guarantee can no longer be taken for granted — capabilities that today are provided only by the United States must be built up in Europe.
- The threat picture is broader than a classic armed attack: A systematic hybrid pressure campaign aims to gradually undermine the functioning of the state and the cohesion of society. Sweden’s foremost vulnerability lies not in individual sectors, but in the lack of coordination between them.
Read the report here (Swedish).