Europe needs to wake up. This is something we have heard quite often in recent weeks. ”Wake up” in the sense that more European leaders must realize that, with Trump at the helm, the free world outside of the United States (US) is in need of more cooperation, a stronger strategic compass and less dependence on the US as a guarantor of security. On this point, large parts of the free world have, as so many times before, snoozed.
But even if this is true, it should be possible to combine serious preparedness for the worst future scenarios with a more constructive and long-term approach. We cannot dismiss the US as beyond hope just because a president there gets a second (and therefore final) term. On the contrary, more than ever, Europe needs to maintain hope that change is attainable – and we should start with ourselves.
Of course, it is painful that the powerful symbol of freedom that the US has been is at risk. However Europe’s readiness to throw all of its hope overboard, because a democratic elected leader across the Atlantic does not measure up, might in fact reveal more about ourselves? American society is under extraordinary pressure, and this will likely be felt even stronger during Trump’s second term. The world holds its breath as one problematic appointment after another is announced. At the same time, many Americans want to see increased exchange with the rest of the world and see Europe as a given partner. With these we should build bridges and alliances.
We should choose our European leaders carefully
At this point of time, a deterministic “doomsday-mindset” which risks paralyzing our ability to take action is not what we need. Rather the opposite, we need to be creative and find new paths forward.
This is also why we need to choose our European leaders carefully and with the future in mind.
A particularly bad moment for Europe was Biden’s visit to Berlin. Sitting around the table was Scholz, Macron and Starmer. And they talked about the war in Europe.
For too long now we have seen the signs that the leaders of old Europe do not have the answers to the decisive challenges that characterizes the war and conflicts of our time. All the way from Macron’s eagerness to jump on the phone with Putin at the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, to his 180-degree turnaround in proposing ground troops in Ukraine. Next to that there is Germany’s stubbornness to let go of the joystick, yet reluctance to use the gas pedal.
Involving the countries whose interests are most acutely at stake in the war in Ukraine would – in addition to being polite – be both sensible and strategic. When these countries, Poland and the Baltics states being next in line after Ukraine, invest ambitiously in defense and security, it is hardly back seat drivers from the past who will be decisive for Europe’s future.
And yet, there is a lingering feeling that everyone is waiting for these specific nations, the leaders of old Europe, to take the lead. This is a misconception that Europe must begin to detach itself from.
More natural collaboration than ever
In order to gain a more stable foothold in the part of the world that is currently threatened by a next stage of Russia’s war, Sweden and its neighboring countries can invest more not only in the Nordic-Baltic relationship, but also in their relationships with Poland.
It seems increasingly sensible, in our part of the world, to talk more about NBP – Nordic-Baltic-Poland rather than the traditional NB8. With the strong Nordic, not least Swedish, support for Ukraine, the proactive stance of the Baltic states and Poland’s growing significance both regarding economy and defence, it would be wise to commit to such a future-proofed alliance. Working closely with the countries that we are closest to geographically as well as in terms of values, with whom we share both a democratic basis, an innovative spirit and a commitment to shape the future, is more natural than ever, also now as NATO allies. This cooperation will make us all stronger, regardless of who holds the American presidency now or in the future.
Anna Rennéus Guthrie, Director Frivärld/Stockholm Free World Forum.
This column was first published in Altinget (21/11).
