Presidentkandidaterna och handelspolitiken — aktuell sammanfattning

Trump förefaller att i största allmänhet vilja strunta i internationella avtal, inklusive USA:s del av de de gemensamma förpliktelser som NATO innebär, om han i värsta fall blir president.

Mot den bakgrunden är det svårt att säga att just handeln är det största problemet med hans eventuella presidentskap.

Men det är solklart ett av de stora problemen.

Trumps tanke på att USA skall lämna WTO är en helt ny eskalering.

”Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump threatened to pull the U.S. out of the World Trade Organization if membership in the global trade body interferes with his plan to impose penalties on companies that move American production offshore.

The bold warning came as Mr. Trump was discussing his plan to impose taxes or tariffs on U.S. companies that move manufacturing abroad in an interview Sunday with NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

The interviewer, Chuck Todd, suggested such a policy could run afoul of the WTO, the Geneva-based trade club that includes most nations around the world and adjudicates trade disputes over agreed-upon tariffs and rules.

“It doesn’t matter,” Mr. Trump responded. “Then we’re going to renegotiate or we’re going to pull out. These trade deals are a disaster, Chuck. World Trade Organization is a disaster.””

Ett fullskaligt handelskrig är det sista världsekonomin behöver, alldeles bortsett från spekulationerna om hur olika scenarior skulle gynna Putins Ryssland.

Dessutom innebär inte Clinton något större hopp för frihandeln, mer än den klena trösten att hon inte ger intryck av att vara helt galen.

Bloomberg sammanfattar kunskapsläget på området ganska bra här.

Den libertarianska tidskriften Reason skriver om den intellektuella härdsmälta som ligger bakom presidentkandidaternas nuvarande hållning i handelsfrågor här.

Men vad kan presidenten egentligen göra på egen hand? Det är oklart. Han kan dra ut USA ur internationella avtal på egen hand, men han kan inte införa eller höja tullar utan kongressen. USA Today reder ut.

Det finns dock knappast någon ekonom som står bakom Trumps förslag:

”Branstetter, who served as a senior economist for international trade and investment in the Obama administration (Branstetter was also twice asked to serve in the same capacity for President George W. Bush), had some further blistering criticisms for Trump on trade, but he insists, “I’m not a political actor; I am an economist. And the positions that I’ve described are about as close to a sort of a universal truth as you can ever get a set of economists to agree on.”

Echoing that, one of George W. Bush’s chief economic advisers, Harvard economist Gregory Mankiw, recently told the New York Times, “There are few things economists are unanimous about, but support of free trade comes pretty close.”

I spoke with several other economists and they all basically agreed that Trump’s policies are deeply flawed.

“There are a host of serious mistakes in Trump’s trade positions,” said economist Derek Scissors, with the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington. “Forty-five percent across the board tariffs is a terrible ‘solution’ to our problems with China, one that would harm poor Americans.”

“Trump isn’t wrong about everything,” Scissors added. “The populist support he and Bernie Sanders have is justified by several important facts, even if their policy positions would hurt much more than they would help.”

Meaning, many Americans are upset that they’ve been left behind in today’s global economy. Their anger is warranted, but these economists say Trump’s proposed trade solutions won’t solve their problems.”

 

 


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Kategorier: Frihandel