Image: Oskar Qvarfort
In March 2024 the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) and the US Embassy in Stockholm organized a series of conference events in Sweden concerning the challenges posed by authoritarian regimes exploiting international research collaborations and corporate ownership for illiberal purposes. This article was originally published in the ISDP’s special paper ”Elevating Democracy via Transatlantic Collaboration” released alongside these conference events. The article has since then been revised with added content.
Elevating democracy in our time is one of the most important means we have to preserve peace. This should be done in cooperation between the world’s two major democratic entities: The United States and the European Union.
Let me begin with a few words about democracy. Democracy is not the worst of systems except for the alternatives, as Winston Churchill once phrased it. It is much more.
Democracy is a fantastic system, not only for governing a country but for allowing society to develop. In democratic societies, there is room for innovation, new ideas, and continuous improvement in all areas of life. People have the freedom to create music, join orchestras, play in sports teams, engage in scientific groups, and enjoy life. They can discuss politics, culture, and life openly, and they have the power to correct political mistakes and change policies.
This is why dictators fear democracy, often in almost ridiculous ways. They are afraid of pensioners demonstrating, students chanting, and journalists writing editorials. Repression grows with their fear. Putin and Xi may appear mighty, but they dare not face their own people. This tells us that defending free societies is about defending the inherent freedom within them. This freedom fosters the innovation, creativity, and dynamism that dictatorships stifle.
Dictatorships are no longer confined to distant lands. In our interconnected, digital world, their influence reaches everywhere. This integration means that the logic of dictatorships doesn’t stay within their national borders. They are not just “there” but also “here,” threatening our economic force, innovations, societal integrity, and human dynamics. These elements must be defended.
In Sweden, we are celebrating our recent membership in NATO, a defense alliance that has strengthened our security and regional stability. The Swedish public widely supports this membership, recognizing the military threats we face, particularly from Russia. The full-scale war in Ukraine and Russia’s and Putin’s rhetoric of being at war with the West highlight these threats. They range from covert operations and targeted attacks to nuclear threats. Each level of threat is interconnected, and failing to address them at lower levels increases the risk of escalation.
Below the ladder of military threats lie the gray zone challenges, which are not so much about guns and tanks, but rather cyber-attacks, industrial espionage, weaponized trade, corruption, disinformation, and sabotage. These are part of an ongoing hybrid warfare that targets economic force, innovations, and societal integrity.
The European Union is a relevant alliance for addressing these threats, but it is not enough. These threats are global and must be faced globally. It is certainly not, as with Russia, something that can be seen as a threat only to Europe. It is to some minor extent a matter of Russia but much more about China as well as hostile regimes in other parts of the world, such as Iran or North Korea. Their threats are global. The EU needs the US, and the US needs the EU to the same extent. Together, we must think about new alliances in areas beyond the military to deal with the numerous threats facing democracies.
From Stockholm, where this article is written, we can see where the old Sweden met the world through trade. Our history of exporting goods like iron, copper, fur, and agricultural products to Europe laid the foundation for our global economy.
Today, long distances are no longer a barrier, and the difference between “here” and “there” has diminished. Today, knowledge and information move at the speed of light, making our friends and enemies equally close.
The last 30 years have accelerated this transformation into a new global economy. Open societies, democracies, and economies are more exposed to attacks than ever before, not just through warfare but also through ongoing gray zone conflicts. The main production factors – intelligence and knowledge – are global and constantly moving. The more digital, the less territorial.
The coming 30 years will not at all be a change from the economy of old times, it will be a development of the world as it has emerged till today.
In a world that is simultaneously larger and smaller, what happens far away can have an immediate impact here. This makes it easier for antagonistic actors to operate from a distance, often invisibly or without attribution. We need alliances to counter these threats.
A first reflection should be that this is not the time for “strategic autonomy” or “sovereignty” as has been discussed in Europe, as a way of standing alone. In reality, the threats that we are facing, if in Europe or elsewhere, are truly global and threats not only to us but to everyone else in the free world.
Europe must do what it can, for sure, but the threats are bigger than that, and the same goes for the US. There is no America First that will be great enough to stand up to all the antagonists to the free world. Just look at the world from above the Arctic, and you will see another geography than when you have the equatorial perspective.
When in the absolute North, in an area that has become of strategic interest for Russia as well as for China, as Donald Trump has noticed, you will see how close the North American security is linked to the security of Northern Europe. The transarctic link is another way of explaining the importance of the transatlantic link. So we need not only a strong European leg of Nato, we need a strong arm of Nato on the Arctic. And we need each other.
Supporting Ukraine against Russia demonstrates also that it is about more than military means; it involves high-tech, digitalization, and economic sustainability. The EU and the US need each other to stand against threats that challenge the free world. We must “hang together, or we will all hang separately,” as was said during the American Revolution.
A second reflection is that globalization has increased wealth and prosperity worldwide, reducing ultimate poverty and improving living standards. This progress is a result of increased trade, global financial markets, and the spread of knowledge and intelligence. Open economies benefit the most from this growth because democracies are inherently better.
A third reflection: The global influence of transatlantic economies has decreased relative to others. Ten years before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU and US had a significant economic advantage over China and Russia. There was a clear advantage for democracy and the free world and no questioning of its economic leadership and global impact on the international order.
Today, the EU’s GDP is comparable to China’s, while the US remains larger. On the global scene, China is more important than Europe, and in reality, competing with the US to be the leader in Asia, Africa and even Latin-America.
Together, the EU and US are still larger than China, but not by the same margin. Adding allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada strengthens this lead, but it is not as dominant as it once was. Democracies are no longer as dominant as they used to be. A consequence of their prior domination is that the international order developed for a long time along the lines of Western democracies.
The fact that we are not as dominant as before has implications for democracy in the world, the future international order, and human rights. This is an ongoing threat to democracies and to democracy as such in the global perspective. And the threat is transformed to reality by warfare in the gray zone, where warfare is fought in the shadows of dictatorships.
We need to keep the global economy open and integrated, but we also need to understand that free trade in its real meaning means trade between free societies. State-controlled trade is never free. And in economies where the state is controlling all business, we will never have free trade in its real meaning. This should not – once again – lead to protectionism, which would make democracies weaker, but instead lead to increased awareness. And without awareness, the risks for protectionism will in the long run be overwhelming.
How to deal with the threats in the gray zone and modern warfare is a complicated issue in this perspective. It is a little bit like squaring the circle, but it is possible if we start from the following points:
- Today everything can be of geopolitical importance – because it is a part of the knowledge society and advanced products as well as advanced services can be of dual use and be weaponized,
- Furthermore, in the gray zone nearly everything has dual use; disinformation, TV channels, corruption, ownership of industries, cyberwarfare and hacking,
- Innovations are defining leadership, competitiveness, and military strength more than the size of GDP. Innovations are the key to geopolitical force, and they will be more important for geopolitical force than the economic impact as counted in GDP.
- We need to differentiate between science, inventions, and innovations. Innovations are in a way much more decisive for geopolitical force. Innovations are about how you use new knowledge and inventions. Innovations are in reality a result of clusters of knowledge and science, formed and stimulated by freedom and competition that still will be local and physical.
- Distances of today – the more digital, the less territorial means that innovations can be used everywhere, but they will still come from somewhere where those things happen. And these clusters will still be rooted in culture and traditions with physical roots.
- Clusters of excellence and leadership, formed through connection and cooperation, are vital for defending our societies. For instance, advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, materials science, biomedicine, and genome research are strategically important. By leading in these areas, we set new global standards based on our values. This leadership ensures our superiority, not protectionism.
- In order to ensure that we can be the leaders, we must be just as open to import as to export. That is the only way we can form transatlantic clusters and leadership ahead of others. Historically, the exporter was the winner. Now it is the one importing knowledge and intelligence that has the opportunity to be the winner, provided we can be more successful in using and developing knowledge and innovations than others. Instead of so-called strategic autonomy and sovereignty, we need to foster strategic capacity and capability through the flow and the structures of strategic alliances that bind us together and define our leadership.
So, we should have a new North Atlantic Knowledge and Innovation Treaty with alliances and common programs in all these strategic areas. We shall be totally open for the competition, development, and cooperation that can be established between us. The digital economy here serves as a good example. Digital protectionism, as we see many signs of, would risk Europe’s competitiveness in mainstream industries that rely on edge computing, and would certainly not increase European competition in large-scale digital platforms.
The more digitalized we are, the greater our capacities will be. The more advanced telecom we develop, the stronger our ability to drive change will be. The more we lead in the sciences, the better positioned we will be to set global rules and standards for open societies. In this framework, we can set up joint science centers as well as joint science and research programs, stimulating the emergence of new centers of excellences and transatlantic leadership in all strategic areas. Through this new transatlantic alliance, we can create a shared market that stimulates further innovation through its own economic impact.
The EU and America share a legitimate need to secure supply chains and strive for technological leadership in all areas. These aims are weakened by indiscriminate trade impediments but could be strengthened by carefully crafted alliances.
This is why we should give the US-European Trade and Technology Council (TTC) a new start and initiate new strategic ambitions with cooperation in cyber security, common research, and common trade stances toward countries such as China. The EU and US should do this with the UK as a partner, with further focus on all advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum systems, hypersonic missiles as well as in the areas of biotech, biomedicine and genome and material research.
We shall not be closed for trade, not with anyone, except for those exposed to sanctions. Yet, by leadership we can set the rules for a fair and open international trade, based on the values of the rule of law. Instead of being designed by protectionist rules, the transatlantic alliance should be designed in a way that promotes joint clusters of technologies, science and innovations, so that the democracies of the world can be in the lead.
Gunnar Hökmark is the chairman of think tank Stockholm Free World Forum.
