Frihandel i media vecka 49

2016-12-09

Denna veckan har det varit få nyheter om handel i svenska media. Desto mer i internationella. CNBC skriver om “Trumponomics” och att USA bör vara mycket försiktig med att utmana Kina på handelskrig:

“Rhetoric is perhaps morphing into a new policy towards China.

The concept of free trade assumes that market dynamics dictate prices without intervention; such is not the real world. We all know that free trade is more a goal than reality as there are a myriad of restrictions, tariffs, and side agreements that impact trade around the world. This certainly is the case for Chinese-American trade agreements.

Automatically imposing tariffs is not necessarily the first choice for others in Washington, DC, to address current trade inequities. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said this week he prefers that economic strength come through revisions in the tax code rather than through a trade war or protectionist policies. Trade wars are negative for economic growth and, for that reason, it makes sense to be deliberate and carefully consider the unintended outcomes of accelerating a tariff based policy.

“We all know that free trade is more a goal than reality as there are a myriad of restrictions, tariffs, and side agreements that impact trade around the world. This certainly is the case for Chinese-American trade agreements.”
Given that trade will likely be a significant issue going forward in the new administration, it’s reasonable to ask what the likely impact will be on U.S. multinational companies doing business with China. Examples of complicated arrangements abound. The entanglements are significant and not a simple as firing a warning shot across the bow of a manufacturer seeking to import/export goods from/to China. There are real jobs at stake here and it’s important that one is very careful to avoid the temptation to make blanket assessments of what might be a prudent course of action.”

Japanerna är uppenbarligen optimister. The Star skriver att de har ratifierat TPP trots att USA i dagsläget inte förväntas ansluta sig:

“TOKYO: Japan on Friday ratified the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade pact aimed at linking a dozen Pacific Rim nations, hoping it will one day take effect despite President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge that the United States will withdraw from it.

The TPP, which aims to cut trade barriers in some of Asia’s fastest-growing economies but does not include China, cannot take effect without the United States.

The deal, which has been five years in the making, requires ratification by at least six countries accounting for 85% of the combined gross domestic product of the member nations.

Given the sheer size of the American economy, the deal cannot go ahead without US participation.

It has not been ratified by the US Senate and Trump last month promised to withdraw from it after he is inaugurated in January. Instead, he would replace it with bilaterally negotiated trade deals.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said the TPP would be “meaningless without the United States”.

But by ratifying the deal in parliament on Friday, Japan is signalling it hopes the accord can be resuscitated when conditions are more favourable.

Government officials said the trade pact would essentially go into deep freeze but that they would not abandon hope of reviving it in future.

Taro Kono, a senior lawmaker of Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said there was a chance that Trump would change his mind.”

2016-12-04

Brexit har dessutom fått fart på frihandelsförhandlingarna med Japan. Storbritannien är japanernas väg in i EU och den har blivit osäker. Ett avtal är nära säger Cecilia Malström i Financial Times:

“Brussels is “very close” to a free-trade deal with Japan as negotiators seek to ease anxiety in Tokyo that an agreement could run into the same kind of political trouble that nearly took down the EU-Canada trade pact.

At the end of a year in which trade has come under intense political attack in the US and Europe, an EU-Japan deal would boost a policy that is increasingly questioned by populist nationalists as they make big strides against mainstream parties.

Donald Trump, US president-elect, has said he will abandon the ratification of the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership deal on his first day in the White House and renegotiate other agreements. Talks on a stalled EU-US deal are set for the “freezer”, EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström told the Financial Times. “How deep frozen it will be, we’ll see.”

In an interview, Ms Malmström said Japanese negotiators raised questions about the drawn-out Canadian affair in discussions. “Of course everyone reads the papers . . . But we are committed to try to finalise this,” she said. “We’re very close in finalising.” A breakthrough by the end of 2016 or the beginning of 2017 was still in prospect, she added.

The proposed Japanese agreement is similar in scope to the Canadian deal — known as Ceta — because it is supposed to cover almost all areas of economic activity. Yet the pact would be bigger as the Japanese economy is three times as large as Canada’s.”


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