Kinas ekonomi skadas av deras protektionism

Om Donald Trump skulle få kineserna att ta bort alla sina tullar och subventioner skulle det resultera i att den kinesiska ekonomin blev ännu starkare än den är nu. Kina tillväxt är inte hög tack vare protektionismen, utan trots protektionismen.

Tom Mullen på FEE gör en intressant vinkel på handelskriget:

“As Walter Williams put it, if you’re out in a rowboat with someone who shoots a hole in his end of the boat, you’re not helping yourself by shooting another hole in your end.

Well, the same goes for the Chinese. To the extent they are doing the things they are accused of by Washington, they are only hurting themselves. All the arguments for why the US should eliminate its tariffs, even if the Chinese don’t, also apply to China. Whatever money China spends subsidizing its exporters is money that could have been used by a Chinese industry that doesn’t need to be subsidized. Every additional renminbi yuan Chinese consumers are paying for automobiles or other products upon which they place high tariffs is one they no longer have to spend on something else, making the Chinese poorer for all the same reasons US tariffs make Americans poorer.

Contrary to the flawed reasoning pervading most of the political spectrum, China’s economy is not growing faster than America’s because of its protectionism and other government interventions. It’s growing faster despite them.

US manufacturing output hasn’t dropped significantly as the jobs have left.

China has a population north of 1.4 billion people. If the whole world were laissez-faire, China would have the largest economy in the world. It has been the relative freedom of the US economy compared to China’s that has made the US economy larger. It is only the persistence of relatively more state interventions, even in the post-communist era, that has kept China from becoming the largest economy already.”

Ett ekonomiskt starkare Kina skulle vara bra för USA. Då skulle kineserna köpa fler amerikanska produkter och deras arbetsintensiva industri få ett högre kostnadsläge, men samtidigt bli effektivare. Både Kina och USA skulle vinna.

Däremot är det inte självklart att Kina skulle bli ett mindre hot geopolitiskt, snarare tvärt om. Men det är inte ett handelspolitiskt problem, och Kinas militära styrka och internationella inflytande är betydande redan som det är.

 


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Kategorier: Frihandel